基于复杂网络的国际石油贸易关系定量研究

A Quantitative Study of International Petroleum Trade Relations Based on Complex Networks

张松林 刘浩瀚 尹虎 李奋

ZHANGSonglin LIUHaohan YINHu LIFen

宜宾职业技术学院电子信息与人工智能学院, 四川 宜宾 644003 四川建筑职业技术学院基础教学部, 四川 德阳 618000 西南石油大学石油与天然气工程学院, 四川 成都 610500 中国石化胜利油田分公司勘探开发研究院, 山东 东营 257099

Electronic Information and Artificial Intelligence School, Yinbin Vocational & Technical College, Yibin, Sichuan 644003, China Basic Teaching Department, Sichuan College of Architectural Technology, Deyang, Sichuan 618000, China Petroleum Engineering School, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610500, China Research Institute of Exploration and Development, Shengli Oilfield Branch, SINOPEC, Dongying, Shandong 257099, China

针对如何更加准确地评价国际石油贸易关系问题，开展了将该贸易关系进行网络化和结构化的特征指标量化分析研究。研究中以复杂网络理论进行网络化建模，以结构平衡理论进行定量分析，采用了计算聚类系数、平衡度等关键指标进行年度基准对比。获得了国际石油贸易关系网络随着贸易者数量的增加尤其是进口国数量增加，网络的聚类系数变大，平衡度值增加，整个贸易网络平衡性变差，贸易关系变得更加紧张这一结论。本研究采用网络化和结构化的方式进行关系评价，是将石油贸易关系的研究从定性推进至定量的有益尝试。

Aiming at the problem of how to evaluate the international petroleum trade relationship more accurately, a network and structural characteristic index quantitative analysis of the relationship is carried out. In this study, the complex network theory was used for network modeling, the structural balance theory was used for quantitative analysis, and the key indexes such as calculated clustering coefficient and degree of balance were used for annual benchmark comparison. The conclusion is that with the increase of the number of traders, especially the number of importing countries, the clustering coefficient of the network becomes larger, the balance degree value increases, the balance of the entire trade network becomes worse, and the trade relationship becomes more tense. This research adopts network and structured way to evaluate the relationship, which is a beneficial attempt to advance the research of oil trade relationship from qualitative to quantitative.

10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2020.06.05.02