国际原油价格涨落因素分析

Analyzing the Fluctuation Factors of International Crude Oil Price

黄润东

HUANG Run-dong

中国石油化工与销售华东公司, 上海 200122

Petrochina East China Chemicals & Marketing Company, Shanghai 200122, China

强劲的需求、剩余产能的减少、炼油能力的不足及游资的炒作使国际油价目前仍处于高位。作者综合分析了促成国际原油价格上涨和下跌的各种因素,认为今年四季度到明年上半年国际原油价格仍将处于阶段性高位,徘徊在每桶60~70美元之间,大幅度高于或低于该价格区间的可能性都很小;但中期来看,国际原油价格将在未来几年回落到石油供需双方均可接受的一般均衡价格,大约在每桶40美元。

The increasing demand, the production reduction of remain oil, the lack of refining capacity and the bidding up by international idle money has caused international oil price stays high in the present. After synthetically analyzing the factors which cause crude oil price to move tempestuously in the international futures market, the paper presents idea that the WTI price will remain to move between 60 and 70 USD/bbl which is the temporary high level, it is hardly go beyond this scale greatly; as for the medium terms, the WTI price will wave gently around 40 USD/bbl, which is the acceptable level by suppliers and demanders.