气田开发经济预警方法研究

The Study of Early Warning Method of Gas Field Development

陈武 钟水清 乐宏 钟孚勋 杨旭 钟应昌 冯人伟

CHEN Wu ZHONG Shui-qing YUE Hong ZHONG Fu-xun YANG Xu ZHONG Ying-chang FENG Ren-wei

西南石油学院, 四川 成都 610500; 四川石油管理局, 四川 成都 610051; 西南油气分公司, 四川 成都 610051

Southwest Petroleum Institute, Chengdu 610500, China; Petroleum Administration Bureau of Sichuan, Chengdu 610051, China; Southwest Oil & Gas Branch, Chengdu 610051, China

通过对气田开发规律性的认识, 结合气田开发循环变动状况, 分析气田开发中众多经济变量的波谷、波峰及其转折。借助宏观经济预警分析的领先指标、同步指标和滞后指标的方法, 建立气田开发经济预警指标体系。作者将时间数列中测定循环波动的方法和宏观经济预警研究的方法结合起来运用到气田开发经济预警研究中, 通过建立相应的指标体系和经济预警分析模型, 绘制出气田开发经济预警控制图, 通过控制图发现问题及时调整开发方案, 避免气田开发过程中的过度波动, 保持气田开发的相对均衡性。

Through the understanding of the gas field development law, combined with the gas field development circulation variation, the paper analyzes the trough and crest of numerous economic variables in gas field development. Using macroeconomic leading index, synchronous index and lag index for reference, set up the economy early warning index system of gas field development. This paper applies macroeconomic early warning method to economy early warning of gas field development. Through the set-up of economic prewarning models and the system of corresponding index, the author draws a control plot of early warning system of gas field development to prevent the gas field from excessive fluctuation in the development course and keep the relative harmony development in gas field.

四川省教育厅社会科学重点研究课题基金项目(项目名称:公司证券投资研究。项目编号:川教科SA03-087)中的部分内容。