遗传算法——国际石油合作勘探开发项目投资组合的新方法

The Genetic Algorithm is the New Method for the Selection of International Petroleum Cooperative Exploration and Development Projects

李玉蓉 李霞 陈光海 胡兴中

LI Yu-rong LI Xia CHEN Guang-hai HU Xing-zhong

西南石油学院工商管理学院, 四川成都 610500; 胜利油田地质科学研究院, 山东东营 257015; 胜利石油管理局油建九公司, 山东东营 257100

School of Business Administration, Southwest Petroleum Institute, Chengdu 610500, China; Geological Scienific Research Institute of Shengli Oil Field, Dongying 257015, China; The Ninth Branch of Oil Constructing Company of Shengli Oil Field, Dongying 257100, China

国际石油合作勘探开发面临着对不同地区、不同财务制度下的项目进行投资方案选择和优化组合的艰巨任务。对于非互斥方案的选择除受技术、经济等的可行性约束外还受自身条件(如资金限制)、合同条款规定(如最迟开工时间、最低义务工作量、税收篱笆圈政策)等多种因素影响。文章归纳了几条国际石油合作下进行方案选择的特殊考虑,指出了常规项目经济评价方法存在的局限,提出了运用遗传基因算法进行项目经济评价和方案筛选的基本思路并建立了相应的评价优选模型。

In order to carry out international petroleum exploration and development projects, policymakers face the arduous task of choosing and optimizing projects in different areas and under different financial rules. The choices involve many considerations on restriction on projects except of the technological and economic feasibility (such as limited capital, the latest time of going into operation, tax revenue hedge enclose policy, minimum compulsory work etc). The paper summed up several pieces of special considerations under international petroleum cooperation, and pointed out the limitation of existing methodology of routine economic evaluation on projects. And at last the paper has proposed the idea of using genetic algorithm to carry out economic evaluation of the project and scheme and constructed the corresponding evaluation mode.