预期货币价值法在国内页岩气区块竞标中的应用与探讨

Application and discussion of expected monetary value (EMV) method in domestic shale gas block bidding

赵琳洁 王保华 李浩 刘超英 周小进

ZHAO Linjie WANG Baohua LI Hao LIU Chaoying ZHOU Xiaojin

中国石化 石油勘探开发研究院 无锡石油地质研究所，江苏 无锡 214126 中国石化 石油勘探开发研究院，北京 102206

Wuxi Research Institute of Petroleum Geology, SINOPEC Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute, Wuxi, Jiangsu 214126, China SINOPEC Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute, Beijing 102206, China

矿权竞标结果受多种因素影响，具有较强的不确定性。特别是在低勘探程度区，如何准确开展区块经济评价是目前亟待解决的一个重点问题。以预期货币价值法(EMV)为基础，考虑“风险—价值”双因素模型量化地质风险，运用概率分布模型量化资源量的不确定性，明确关键参数的选取依据，梳理出针对低勘探程度区页岩气区块的经济评价方案，并应用于南方滇黔桂盆地桂中坳陷页岩气某区块。该方法综合考虑了资源潜力、工程技术条件、开发方案、预期经济价值及油气补贴政策等不同方案组合下的多个场景，形成的多套经济评价方案可为决策者提供多样化的区块经济评价参数数据，能有效指导区块竞标方案决策。

The result of mining right bidding, affected by many factors, has strong uncertainty. Especially in areas with low exploration degree, how to accurately carry out block economic evaluation is a key issue in current research. Based on the expected monetary value (EMV) method, this paper considers the "risk-value" two-factor model to quantify the geological risk, uses the probability distribution model to quantify the uncertainty of resources, defines the basis for the selection of key parameters, sorts out the economic evaluation scheme for shale gas blocks in areas with low exploration degree, and carries out the application to a shale gas block in the Guizhong Depression in Dianqiangui Basin, southern China. The results show that the method comprehensively considers multiple scenarios under different combinations of schemes, such as resource potential, engineering and technical conditions, development scheme, expected economic value, and oil and gas subsidy policies. The multiple sets of economic evaluation schemes formed can provide diversified block economic evaluation parameter data for decision makers, and can effectively guide the decision-making of block bidding scheme.

中国石化科技部项目 P21086-1;中国石化科技部项目 P21086-2

https://doi.org/10.11781/sysydz202303587