油气区带风险评价方法

Play risk evaluation for hydrocarbon exploration

刘曾勤 吕睿

LIU Zengqin LÜ Rui

中国石化 石油勘探开发研究院，北京 102206 中国石化 国际石油勘探开发有限公司，北京 100029

Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute, SINOPEC, Beijing 102206, China International Petroleum Exploration and Production Corporation, SINOPEC, Beijing 100029, China

风险和不确定性是油气区带勘探的固有属性，周详的勘探计划需要规避风险和准确认识不确定性。根据中国石化海外油气勘探项目特点，以及国际公司勘探项目评价标准，通过定量评估油气区带的油气生排烃能力、储层质量、封盖条件和圈闭有效性，建立油气区带风险赋值标准和评价流程。基于油气区带的数据密度、覆盖范围和地质认识，按照木桶理论确定4个风险要素的存在概率，将每个因素的风险概率值相乘获得油气区带的地质成功概率。该评价方法提供了一种将定性地质认识和勘探信息，定量转化为各个要素风险概率及区带整体的地质成功概率。地质成功概率综合反映了区带的勘探程度和地质特征，决定了油气勘探风险的大小。油气区带风险评价方法可以优选勘探区，聚焦勘探评价工作，为勘探投资决策提供科学依据。

Risk and uncertainty are coherent attributes in hydrocarbon play exploration, and comprehensive exploration strategy requires a deliberate consideration of risk aversion and an faithful understanding of uncertainty. According to the characteristics of SINOPEC oversea oil and gas exploration projects, as well as the exploration project evaluation criteria of international oil companies, this paper describes the establishment of value-determined standards and hydrocarbon play risk workflow by quantitative assessment of hydrocarbon generation and charge capability, reservoir quality, preservation condition, and trap validity of a play. According to data density, coverage and geological understanding, in accordance with bucket theory, the probabilities of occurrence of four risk factors were determined, and the chance of geologic success (COGS) of a play was obtained by multiplying the probabilities of each risk factor. This workflow provided a method for transferring qualitative geological understanding and exploration data to quantitatively assess the risk probability of each factors and overall COGS. The COGS values determine the play risk, which is a comprehensive reflection of the exploration phase and geological characteristics of the study block. The play risk workflow facilitates high grading areas, allows a focus on the exploratory and appraisal aspects, and provides a scientific basis for exploration investment decision.

国家科技重大专项“南大西洋两岸盆地成藏条件及战略选区” 2016ZX05033001-003

https://doi.org/10.11781/sysydz2022061081