用系统动力学方法研究油藏管理

Reservoir management using system dynamics method

范智慧 李阳

Fan Zhihui Li Yang

中国石油化工股份有限公司, 北京 100728

SINOPEC, Beijing 100728, China

油藏管理是实现油田高效开发的重要途径，是一项系统工程。该文引入系统工程中的系统动力学方法研究油藏管理，将油藏管理视为一个系统，开展系统分析和系统结构研究，指出油藏管理系统由油藏资源、生产（管理）、技术（管理）、组织管理等4个分系统组成。选取油藏资源与生产管理分系统为研究重点，对其相互作用机理进行研究，并在此基础上构建生产-资源复合系统的系统动力学仿真模型，并以SL等油田的实际数据和资料进行仿真实验，分析采收率、年勘探开发总投资、新增探明地质储量、年原油产量、储采平衡率等油藏管理关键指标之间的关系，就如何确定合理的原油产量和储量目标、提升油藏管理水平，提出了“合理原油产量目标是关键、优化勘探开发投资比例和聚焦提高采收率”的相关建议。

Reservoir management is an important way to improve the development efficiency of an oil field. Reservoir management is also considered as system engineering. This paper introduces a method of system dyna-mics in system engineering of reservoir management. Regarding reservoir management as a system, system analysis and system structure research were carried out. The reservoir management system was divided into four subsystems, as reservoir resources, production, technology, and management organization. This paper focused on the interaction mechanism of the reservoir resources and production subsystems. A system dynamics simulation model of production resource system was established. Actual data collected from the SL oil field were input into the simulation model to study the relationship between recovery, investment of exploration and development, new found proven geological reserves, production, and a balanced ratio of reserve-production. Recommendations on how to improve reservoir management, determine reasonable oil production and reserves were brought forward. Reasonable crude oil production target is a key factor, the proportion of investment and development should be optimized, and oil recovery must be focused on.

中国地质调查局“青藏高原非常规油气调查”项目（1212011221106）资助。

https://doi.org/10.11781/sysydz201703390