油气勘探风险分析技术应用现状与发展趋势

Application status and development trend of petroleum exploration risk analysis

李军 蔡利学

Li Jun Cai Lixue

中国石化 石油勘探开发研究院, 北京 100083

SINOPEC Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute, Beijing 100083, China

通过对国内外油气勘探风险分析技术应用现状的系统介绍，分析目前勘探存在的主要问题，总结出今后勘探风险分析技术发展主要有五大趋势：一是勘探风险分析更加重视资料信息的应用，二是风险分析技术与商业或经济储量评价紧密结合，三是风险分析始终贯穿勘探评价和决策全过程，四是数学地质学与计算机的发展将促进勘探风险分析的定量化发展，五是学科交叉和综合研究将随着石油地质理论的发展而发展。

Through the systematic introduction of the application status of petroleum exploration risk analysis within China and aboard, this paper analyzed the major problems in the current exploration and summarized that there would be five trends in the future technology development of the exploration risk analysis. The first one is that the exploration risk analysis will pay more attention to the application of data and information. The second one is that the risk analysis technology will integrate with the commercial or economic reserve evaluation closely. The third one is that the risk analysis will run through the whole process of exploration evaluation and decision. The forth one is that Mathematical Geology and the development of Computer Science will accelerate the quantitative development of the exploration risk analysis. The fifth one is that the multi-disciplinary and comprehensive study will mature with the development of the theory of Petroleum Geology.

https://doi.org/10.11781/sysydz201404500