蒙特卡洛模拟法在也门马里卜—夏布瓦盆地中的应用

MONTE CARLO SIMULATION-A CASE STUDY OF MARIB-SHABWA BASIN IN YEMEN

高济稷 白国平 秦养珍 周志龙

Gao Jiji Bai Guoping Qin Yangzhen Zhou Zhilong

中国石油大学, 油气资源与探测国家重点实验室, 北京, 102249 2. 中国石油大学, 盆地与油藏研究中心, 北京, 102249

State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Prospecting, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China 2. Basin and Reservoir Research Center, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China

美国地质调查局在2000年全球油气资源评价项目中,对待发现可采资源量的计算采用了概率相乘,即蒙特卡洛模拟法。文中将此方法应用于也门马里卜—夏布瓦盆地的资源评价工作,计算结果表明该盆地待发现可采资源量为1.02×108t油当量。认为研究区内同裂谷系成藏组合已接近成熟,而基底裂缝型成藏组合可能具有较大的勘探潜力。

In the World Petroleum Assessment 2000 project,U.S.Geologic Survey(USGS) adopted the method of probabilistic multiplying,namely Monte Carlo simulation to obtain the forecast for undisco-vered petroleum resources.This method is applied to the resources assessment of the Marib-Shabwa Basin in Yemen,and the results show the undiscovered resources will be 102 million tons of oil equivalents(TOE).In the study area,the syn-rift play is considered to be mature,while the fractured basement play is supposed to be highly promising.

国家油气专项项目(2008ZX05031-001-006);国土资源部油气资源战略研究中心全球选区项目(GT-YQ-QQ-2008-3-09)”联合资助

https://doi.org/10.11781/sysydz201003305