预测油气田数目及规模分布的一种新途径──帕雷托截断分布模拟法

A NEW APPROACH TO PREDICTING OIL AND GAS FIELD NUMBERS AND THEIR SIZE AND DISTRIBUTION──A METHOD OF PARETO TRUNCATED DISTRIBUTION MODELLING

刘毅 李军 程学福

Liu Yi Li Jun Cheng Xuefu

地矿部石油地质中心实验室, 无锡 214151

Central Lab of Petroleum Geology, MGMR

本文把油气资源评价的成因法和统计模拟法相结合,建立了帕雷托截断分布模拟法,预测大型含油气地质单元的油气田数目及规模分布。本方法提出了对资源评价具有重要意义的“资源集中程度”参数,采用迭代过近算法实施模拟运算。最后应用此方法对塔里木盆地石油资源进行了预测,并就有关参数的选取作了探讨.

Based on the methods of origin and statisticaI modelling in hydrocarbon resource assessment, the method of Pareto truncated distribution modelling is constructed to predict oil and gas field numbers and their size and distribution in a mega-petroliferous region. The degree Of resource concentration is also proposed in this paper as an important parameter in resource evaluation, and the modelling procedure is fulfilled through iterative and approximate algorithm. At last, a case application of the oil resource forecasting of Tarim Basin is presented and the selection of related parameters is discussed.

“八五”国家重点科技攻关项目85-101-02-04

https://doi.org/10.11781/sysydz199701066