提高估计的可信性

A WAY TO INCREASE THE RELIABILITY OF ESTIMATION

胡桂铭

Hu Guiming

地矿部石油地质研究所

Research Institute of Petroleum Geology, Ministry of Geology and Mineral Resources

不确定性问题,是地质科学量化一个带根本性问题.作者从概率的概念出发,提出了估算某个变量可能取值,以概率分布取代单值估算的观点,进一步对概率分布估算参数的可信性进行了讨论.用概率分布来估计一个参数的可信性的方法很多,反馈法把数学计算的精确意义与人的思维判断有机地结合起来,应用反馈机制,本程序以夏普PC-1500袖珍计算机作为工作机.

One of the basic problems of quantification in geoscience is uncertainty. Based on the concept of probability, the possible value for a variable is pro-posed with the estimation of a single value replaced by probability distribution. The reliability of estimating parameters is further discussed. There are various methods for estimating the reliability of a parameter with probability distribution. Applying the mechanism of feedback, the pro-posed method of feedback combines organically the precision of mathematic computation and the human judgement. Sharp PC-1500 computer is used as the working computer for the study.

https://doi.org/10.11781/sysydz198903284