论文详情
对SEPD模型和YM￣SEPD方法的评论及PEPD模型的建立与应用
断块油气田
2020年 27卷 第6期
阅读：220
查看详情
Title
Review for SEPD model and YM-SEPD method, as well as establishment and application of PEPD model
单位
中国石油勘探开发研究院，北京 100083
中国石油大学（北京）石油工程学院，北京 102249
Organization
Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, Petrochina, Beijing 100083, China
College of Petroleum Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China
摘要
页岩气井产量和可采储量的预测，是页岩气藏开发评价的一项重要任务。Valko和Lee于2010年提出的SEPD（Stretched Exponential Production Decline）模型，即延伸的指数产量递减模型，以及由YU于2013年提出的求解SEPD模型常数的YM￣SEPD方法，受到中国有关专家的重视和引用。然而，由于SEPD模型是未经理论推导直接提出来的，因而存在有明显的不确定性。同时，由于YM￣SEPD方法是将生产时间t=0时的初始理论产量（实为待定的模型常数）q■，错用气井投产后的最大产量q■代替。因而，导致了该方法的不可靠性。笔者基于多峰预测模型的简化，经推导提出了与SEPD模型相对比的PEPD（Pan Exponential Production Decline）泛指数递减模型。实例应用结果表明，SEPD模型比PEPD模型的预测结果明显偏低。
Abstract
The prediction of shale gas well production rate and recoverable reserves is an important task of shale gas reservoir development. The SEPD(Stretched Exponential Production Decline) model proposed by Valko and Lee in 2010 and the YM?鄄SEPD method proposed by YU in 2013 to solve the SEPD model constants have been valued and quoted by relevant China experts. However, the SEPD model was directly proposed without theoretical derivation, and the uncertainty of the model is obvious. At the same time, because the YM-SEPD method replaces the initial theoretical production q■(when t=0) which actually is the model undetermined constant with the maximum production rate q■, leading to the inaccuracy of the method. Based on the simplification of the multi-peak forecasting model by Chen Yuanqian et al., a PEPD model compared with the SEPD（Pan Exponential Production Decline） model was proposed. The application of examples shows that the prediction result of SEPD model is obviously lower than that of PEPD model.
关键词：
SEPD模型;
YM￣SEPD方法;
PEPD模型;
模型评价;
模型对比;
Keywords:
1SEPD model;
YM-SEPD method;
PEPD model;
model evaluation;
model comparison;
DOI
10.6056/dkyqt202006018
论文详情