基于Arps递减的上市储量评估新方法及应用

New method and application for listed reserves evaluation based on Arps decline principle

陈晓明 刘英宪 陈存良 刘超 赵汉卿 田园2

中海石油（中国）有限公司天津分公司渤海石油研究院，天津 300459 中国石化中原石油工程有限公司物资采办中心，河南 濮阳 457001

Bohai Oilfield Research Institute, Tianjin Branch of CNOOC Ltd., Tianjin 300459, China Material Procurement Center, Zhongyuan Petroleum Engineering Co., Ltd., SINOPEC, Puyang 457001, China

SEC上市储量动态评估多采用递减法，但递减率的准确选取比较困难，其对评估结果的影响不容忽视。文中基于Arps递减理论，结合海上油田定液量开发的特点，推导出了适用于海上油田上市储量评估的水驱曲线公式。公式定量化表征了定液量生产阶段累计产油量与累计产液量的变化规律，仅包含剩余可采储量和液油比2个未知参数，求解简单且受数据噪声干扰较小。通过对机理模型动态数据的评估，区分出各类评估方法评估结果的差异：静态法（数模法）评估结果最乐观，其次为蒂麦尔曼水驱曲线法，而指数递减法与新型水驱曲线法评估结果最保守。矿场应用表明，新型水驱曲线法能够提升数据样本质量，其评估结果更加准确可靠。由于新方法不涉及复杂原理，操作简单便捷，具有推广意义。

Data decline analysis is an efficient method used in listed reserves evaluation under SEC standards, but how to choose the right decline rate remains controversial, which may cause confusion or errors in the final evaluation result. Based on Arps decline theory, a new water drive curve formula is derived. The new formula quantitatively characterizes the changing rule between accumulated oil production and accumulated liquid production. In this formula, only two unknown coefficients need to be solved, and the solving process is less influenced by data noise. Through listed reserves evaluation of mechanism model, conclusions could be achieved after comparison: statistical data analysis (numerical simulation) may get the most positive results, while Timmerman water drive curve analysis ranks the second, and the Arps decline analysis as well as the new water drive curve analysis could give a pessimistic but more creditable results. Field application shows that the new method proposed in this article could not only avoid the data noise and give more accurate and reliable result, but also operate simply, which means the significance of popularization.

10.6056/dkyqt201903013