底水油藏水锥回落高度预测模型

Prediction models of water cone falling height for bottom water reservoirs

赵燕 陈向军2

中国石油大学胜利学院，山东 东营 257061 中国石化石油工程技术研究院，北京 100101

College of Shengli, China University of Petroleum, Dongying 257061, China Research Institute of Petroleum Engineering, SINOPEC, Beijing 100101, China

关井压锥是底水油藏高含水后抑制底水锥进的有效方法，为提高再开井生产的开发效果，准确掌握关井后水锥的回落状况非常必要。利用油藏工程分析方法和数值模拟技术，在对底水油藏水锥回落规律影响因素分析的基础上，建立了底水油藏数值模型，研究水油密度差、油水黏度比、油层厚度、水平渗透率、垂向渗透率与水平渗透率比值等因素对关井后水锥回落高度的影响规律，建立各单一影响因素下水锥回落高度与关井时间的定量关系，利用多元非线性回归方法得到多种因素影响下水锥回落高度与关井时间的预测模型。以Z1块底水油藏Z1￣23井为例，对比分析表明，预测模型计算结果与现场监测结果的误差为5.71%。该水锥回落高度预测模型的计算结果能够满足矿场需要。

Shutting coning technique is an effective method for delaying bottom water coning, and grasping water cone falling height has a very important significance for improving development effect after shutting coning. Using reservoir engineering and reservoir simulation methods, a typical numerical model was built after the falling rugularity of water cone of bottom water reservoirs was analyzed, and the effects of water-oil density difference, oil-water viscosity ratio, thickness, permeability, and vertical-horizontal permeability ratio on water cone falling height were studied. Based on the quantitative relationship between falling height and shutting time under different influential factors, prediction models of water cone falling height for bottom water reservoirs were determined by multivariate nonlinear regression method. Taking Well Z1-23 in Z1 Block as an example, the water cone falling height error between prediction model and site monitoring is 5.71%, which shows that the results obtained by this prediction model can meet the needs of oilfield.

10.6056/dkyqt201803020