预测水驱油田含水率的新模型及应用

New model to predict water cut in water flooding oilfield and its application

周鹏¹ 王庆勇¹ 张凤喜¹ 陈秋实²

上海石油天然气有限公司，上海 200041 北京华油海川能源技术开发有限公司，北京 100081

Shanghai Petroleum Corporation Ltd., Shanghai 200041, China Beijing Huayou Haichuan Energy Technology Development Co. Ltd., Beijing 100081, China

含水率是评价水驱油田开发效果和分析油田生产动态的关键参数。传统的含水率预测方法建立的是含水率与采出程度的关系，与油田开发时间无关，且存在一定的局限性。文中依据含水率与开发时间之间的内在关系，在前人研究的基础上建立了一种随开发时间变化的含水率预测模型，该模型表达式简单，预测精度较高。2个油藏实例表明，新模型预测水驱油田含水上升规律与实际情况吻合程度高，符合油田的实际开发情况，且具有一定的实用性和有效性。

Water cut is an important parameter to evaluate the effect of water flooding oilfield development and to analyze the production performance. General methods to predict water content can not establish a relationship between water cut changing with the development time, and there are some limitations. According to the intrinsic relationship between water cut and development time, a model of water cut prediction with the change of development time was established on the basis of a growth model, which is of simple expressions, high prediction accuracy. The new model predictions of two reservoirs show that the law of water cut increasing of water flooding oilfield is in accord with the actual situation, which is in accord with the actual development of the oilfield, and has a certain degree of practicality and effectiveness.

10.6056/dkyqt201704019