基于试验设计的概率体积法在页岩气储量计算中的应用

Application of probability volume method based on experimental design to calculation
of shale gas reserves

包兴 2 李少华 2 张程³ 乔博⁴ 李君⁵ 耿会民⁶

长江大学油气资源与勘探技术教育部重点实验室，湖北 武汉 430100 长江大学地球科学学院，湖北 武汉 430100 武汉侏罗纪技术开发有限公司，湖北 武汉 430073 中国石油长庆油田分公司勘探开发研究院，陕西 西安 710018 中国石油塔里木油田分公司勘探开发研究院，新疆 库尔勒 841000 中国石化河南石油工程有限公司，河南 南阳 473132

概率体积法是目前比较理想的页岩气储量评估方法。以涪陵页岩气田×井区上奥陶统五峰组—下志留统龙马溪组下部地层为例，采用随机建模技术建立了工区的三维地质模型。对影响页岩气储量计算的5类不确定性参数进行分析，设置了各个参数的悲观、可能及乐观3个水平。采用正交试验设计方法设计了18组模拟方案，分别对其进行计算，用直观和方差分析方法对模拟结果进行分析，并对影响页岩气储量的不确定性参数进行了定量评价，最终得到页岩气的储量概率分布。该方法减少了模拟计算时间，提高了评价效率。

The probability volume method is a relatively ideal method for reserves evaluation. Taking the Upper Ordovician Wufeng Formation and the lower part of the Lower Silurian Longmaxi Formation in well block X of Fuling shale gas field for example, we established three-dimensional geological models of the work area by stochastic modeling technique, analyzed five categories of uncertain parameters which influence the shale gas reserves calculation result, and set three levels: pessimistic, possible and optimistic for each parameter. Furthermore, 18 groups of simulation programs were devised and calculated individually by the method of orthogonal experimental design, and the simulation results were analyzed with intuitive and variance analysis methods. Those uncertain parameters which influenced the shale gas reserves were quantitatively evaluated. Ultimately, the probability distribution of the shale gas reserves was gotten. This method reduces the experiment times and improves the evaluation efficiency.

10.6056/dkyqt201705018