修正Hubbert峰型开发模型推导及应用

Derivation and appliation of modified Hubbert peak-shaped development model

 宋传真¹ 周丽梅²

中国石化石油勘探开发研究院，北京 100083 中国石化西北油田分公司勘探开发研究院，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011）

Exploration and Production Research Institute, SINOPEC, Beijing 100083, China Research Institute of Exploration and Development, Northwest Oilfield Company, SINOPEC, Urumqi 830011, China)

 文中针对Hubbert模型的局限性，建立了修正Hubbert峰型开发模型。该模型满足产量预测的基本条件，即初始产量不为0，初始累计产量为0；当生产时间趋于无穷大时，瞬时产量为0，累计产量为可采储量。使用该模型，无论在资料缺少的开发早期，还是在开发中后期，都能容易地确定出油田开发的主要指标。同时，还提出了油田开发早期、中晚期修正Hubbert模型参数的确定方法，并制作了lg VD￣lg Rp，lg VD￣lg at和lg Rp￣lg at 3个无量纲图版，给出了这3种典型图版的匹配方法和步骤，进行油气田产量、开发速度和采出程度等主要开发指标预测，为制定早期开发决策和中后期开发调整方案提供了依据。修正Hubbert峰型模型，还可以用作智力开发模型、生命力模型、工农业生产模型和经济模型。

 In this paper, modified Hubbert peak-shaped model has been established to solve the limitation of Hubbert model. The model can meet the basic conditions of production forecast: the initial oil is not zero, and the initial cumulative production is zero; when the production time goes to infinity, the instantaneous production is zero, and the cumulative production reaches the ultimately recoverable reserves. Using this model, it is easy to gain the development indexes of oil field in the early stage with lack of data, or in the middle-late stage of oilfield development. The methods of model parameters to be determined in different stages of the development are proposed. The three non-dimensional lg-lg curves of VD vs. Rp, VD vs at and Rp vs. at are drawn. The matching method and steps of these three type plots are also presented. Using these three plots, it is easy to predict the main development indexes, such as oil production, recovery rate, and recovery ratio, etc., which provide the basis for the early-stage oilfield development decision-making and the middle-late-stage development adjustment. Modified Hubbert model also can be used as intelligence development model, growth model, industrial and agricultural production model, and economic model.

10.6056/dkyqt201604016