蜀南页岩气藏体积压裂效果预测新方法

New method for shale gas reservoir volume fracturing effect predicting in southern Sichuan

顾岱鸿¹ 曹国佳² 刘广峰¹

中国石油大学（北京）石油工程学院，北京 102249 中国石油长庆油田分公司第二采气厂，陕西 榆林 719000

College of Petroleum Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China No.2 Oil Production Plant, Changqing Oilfield Company, PetroChina, Yulin 719000, China

针对四川长宁—威远地区龙马溪组页岩储层特点，在完善现有的总有机碳质量分数、渗透率和吸附气体积分数评价方法的基础上，采用灰色关联分析方法修正了储层含气性分类评价标准。综合岩石力学参数、脆性特征、地应力和天然裂缝发育状况，对岩石可压性进行定量分析，应用层次分析法建立了岩石可压性评价标准。通过现场压裂测试分析和裂缝解释，给出了适应于该区的改造体积计算模型，并分别对含气性、可压性和改造体积这三者与产量的相关性进行了分析。结果表明，改造体积与压后产量的相关性最高，含气性次之，可压性最低。综合考虑含气性、可压性和改造体积的影响，建立了多因素压后产量预测模型，预测结果与已有生产井产量拟合较好。实例给出了新方法的计算过程，预测结果更准确。

In view of the characteristics of Longmaxi Formation reservoir in Changning-Weiyuan, based on the improved evaluation method of TOC, permeability, and adsorbed gas content, the criterion for gas-bearing property classification evaluation of shale gas reservoir is modified by the application of the grey correlation analysis. A quantitative analysis of rock fracturing ability is conducted by taking into account the rock mechanics parameters, brittleness, in-situ stress and natural fracture development condition; and a standard for fracturing ability evaluation is established by the use of analytic hierarchy process. The calculation model for stimulated reservoir volume (SRV） is obtained by fracturing test and fracture interpretation in field, and the correlations between gas-bearing property, fracturing ability, SRV and production are analyzed respectively. The results show that SRV yields the highest correlation, followed by gas-bearing property and fracturing ability. Considering the influence of gas-bearing property, rock fracturing ability and SRV on the fracturing effect comprehensively, a multi-factor productivity prediction model for volume fractured wells is established,and case study shows that the prediction result is more accurate and more applicable.

10.6056/dkyqt201605017