基于GIS的模糊优化法的页岩气有利区预测

——以淮南煤田下石盒子组为例

胡宝林 平文文 郑凯歌 刘会虎 徐娟 杨华泽1

安徽理工大学地球与环境学院，安徽 淮南 232001 中煤科工集团西安研究院有限公司，陕西 西安 710054

在考虑储层因素、经济效益、资源规模的基础上，借鉴北美页岩气有利区预测经验，结合淮南煤田下石盒子组的地化、沉积等特征，筛选出7个影响因素来作为页岩气有利区优选指标，并建立了相应的页岩气有利区评价模型。通过层次分析方法，确定了有利区评价指标的权重，采用统计类比法、待定系数法和模糊统计分析，确定了各个评价参数的隶属度值；以模糊优化评价方法为基础，结合GIS空间叠加技术，对淮南煤田下石盒子组页岩气进行有利区评价和预测。研究结果表明：研究区下石盒子组有利区可以分为4类，最终优选出贺疃乡—丁集乡—桂集乡—新集乡一线、平圩镇及高皇镇一带为页岩气有利开发区。

Reservoir factors, economic benefits and resource scale are three important aspects in the prediction. On the experience of prediction of favorable exploration areas of shale gas in Northern America and considering geochemical and sedimentary characteristics of Lower Shihezi Formation in Huainan Coalfield, seven factors are chosen as evaluation parameters and evaluation model is established for the prediction of favorable areas of shale gas. The factor weights of favorable areas are identified by Analytic Hierarchy Process, and the membership degrees of parameters are determined by statistical analogy, undetermined coefficient method and fuzzy statistics. Finally, based on the method of fuzzy optimization and GIS spatial overlay technology, the favorable areas for shale gas of Lower Shihezi Formation in Huainan Coalfield is predicted and evaluated. The results show that the favorable shale gas areas in Lower Shihezi Formation can be classified into four categories, the area along Hetuan?鄄Dingji?鄄Guiji?鄄Xinji and Pingyu?鄄Gaohuang belt are selected as favorable areas for shale gas.

10.6056/dkyqt201502011