开发模型与水驱曲线联解预测方法

A prediction method through simultaneously solving development model and water drive curve

王胤渊 陈小凡 刘峰 杨博义

西南石油大学油气藏地质及开发工程国家重点实验室，四川 成都 610500

State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation, Southwest Petroleum University,
Chengdu 610500, China

水驱曲线法与开发模型法为油藏工程的重要预测方法，但在油田实际应用过程中，二者均存在某些方面的局限性。文中将Weibull预测模型和甲型水驱曲线相结合，通过联立求解，得出了一种可预测水驱开发油田含水率、产油量和累计产油量随开发时间变化规律的联解模型，有效克服了单一模型所固有的局限性，扩大了模型的预测范围。实例应用结果表明，该联解模型较为实用、可靠，对水驱油田开发具有一定的指导意义。

The water drive curve and development model are important prediction methods of reservoir engineering. But both of them have limitations in some way in the application process of oilfield. In this paper, a prediction method is built through simultaneously solving Weibull prediction model and Type A water drive curve. This model can predict the variation law of water cut, oil production and cumulative production with development time for waterflooded reservoirs. It overcomes the inherent limitations of any single model and expands the prediction scope. The results of application show that this simultaneous solution model is practicable and reliable. Application of the model has guiding significance for the later development of waterflooded reservoirs.

10.6056/dkyqt201401014