一种预测底水油藏水锥动态及见水时间的新方法

底水油藏开发面临的核心问题是底水的锥进，准确预测底水油藏油井的见水时间，并采取相应的措施，可以延长油井的无水采油期，提高油井的累计产油量和采出程度。文中基于流体在多孔介质中的渗流规律，对底水油藏双重不完善井的水锥突破时间进行了研究。通过数学推导，得到了底水油藏油井水锥突破时间的计算公式，该公式考虑了油水流度比，原始束缚水饱和度，残余油饱和度等影响因素，并与其他底水油藏见水时间的公式进行了对比。实例分析表明，新的底水油藏油井见水时间公式的预测值较准确，并且与李传亮公式的结果较为接近，为预测底水油藏油井的见水时间提供了借鉴和指导。

In the development of bottom water oil reservoir, the critical problem is bottom water coning. To prolong the water-free oil production period, an accurate prediction on water breakthrough time of oil well must be ensured first. Then, by taking appropriate measures accordingly, the cumulative oil production and reserves recovery degree can be enhanced. In this paper, based on the seepage flow law in the porous media, research is conducted on the water coning breakthrough time of the dual imperfect well in bottom water oil reservoir. Through mathematical derivation, a new formula to calculate the water coning breakthrough time is obtained, in which factors including oil-water mobility ratio, the original irreducible water saturation and residual oil saturation are taken into account. Moreover, a comparison is made between this new formula and other formulas for breakthrough time calculation. As is demonstrated in the case analysis, the new formula shows a better performance in the breakthrough time prediction, with the predicting value more accurate and similar to that of the formula proposed by Li Chuanliang. Therefore, the new formula presented in this paper provides a guideline and reference for the prediction of water breakthrough time.

10.6056/dkyqt201402019