概率统计法在储量估算中的应用

Application of probability statistic method in reserves estimation

李定军

Li Dingjun

中国石化西南油气分公司勘探开发研究院，四川 成都 610041

Research Institute of Exploration and Production, Southwest Oil and Gas Company, SINOPEC, Chengdu 610041, China

为给勘探开发部署及投资决策方面提供储量依据，需对CD气田蓬莱镇组气层、含气层、微含气层及砂体4种含气级别、5个计算单元利用概率统计法进行储量估算。根据区域内的资料情况，对此方法进行了简化和变换，将孔隙度、含气饱和度及体积系数3个参数简化为单储系数，有效厚度参数采用概率统计法和净毛比法综合确定。按照该方法估算出的储量数值越小，储量的可靠程度越高，其结果可为相应的风险评估提供数据支撑。

To provide the reserves basis for the exploration and development deployment and investment decision making, probability statistic method is applied to estimate the reserves of five calculation units and four gas?鄄bearing levels, such as Penglaizhen Formation gas layer or gas?鄄bearing layer in CD Gas Field. According to the regional data, the method is simplified and changed, and the porosity, gas saturation and volume factors are simplified to unit reserve coefficient. The effective thickness parameter is obtained by statistics method combined with net to gross ratio. The smaller the estimated probability value of reserves is, the higher the reliability is. The estimated reserve can provide data support for risk assessment.

10.6056/dkyqt201405017