中国新版《天然气可采储量计算方法》标准
存在的主要问题及建议

Existed main problem and recommendation for new edition standard of "The estimated methods of natural gas recoverable reserves" in China

陈元千 张霞林

中国石油勘探开发研究院，北京 100083

Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, PetroChina, Beijing 100083, China

新版《天然气可采储量计算方法》标准，是由国家能源局于2010年12月15日发布实施的国家行业标准，至今已近4 a。天然气可采储量计算方法是该标准的核心部分，它将影响到评估结果的可靠性、可利用性和投资的风险性，因此，应当非常重视标准中计算方法的研究和选用。天然气可采储量计算方法包括：物质平衡法、弹性二相法、产量递减法、改进衰减法、预测模型法和水驱曲线法。新版标准中可采储量计算方法存在的不正确性、不可靠性和明显的错误值得非常重视。文中对物质平衡法、产量递减法和改进衰减法存在的不正确性和不可靠性，以及弹性二相法和预测模型法存在的明显错误，进行了简要的评论，并分析水侵替换系数的不正确术语和表达式。同时，对该标准的修改提出了若干建议。

It has been nearly four years since the new edition standard of "The estimated methods of natural gas recoverable reserves" was issued and implemented by National Energy Administration on December 15, 2010. The calculation method of natural gas recoverable reserves is a core part of the whole standard, and it will affect the reliability and availability of evaluation and the risk of investment. Hence, it should be focused on how to study and choose the calculation method of the standard. We should concern on the inaccuracy, uncertainty and obvious mistakes which exist in the new edition standard of calculation method of natural gas recoverable reserves. For the inaccuracy of material balance method, production decline method and modified decline method, as well as the obvious mistakes of elastic two-phase method and forecasting model method, this paper carries out reviews, and analyzes the incorrect term and expression of water influx displacement coefficient. At the same time, it is also proposed that some revised recommendations concerning standard in this paper.

10.6056/dkyqt201406012