油田技术经济产量预测模型的建立与应用

Establishment and application of technical and economic yield prediction model

叶锋

Ye Feng

中国石油辽河油田分公司勘探开发研究院，辽宁 盘锦 124010

Research Institute of Exploration and Development, Liaohe Oilfield Company, PetroChina, Panjin 124010, China

以技术为中心的传统油田产量预测方法，考虑因素单一，不能直观反映原油价格、生产成本等经济因素和开发投资、产能建设等决策因素对原油产量的影响，难以适应目前以经济效益为中心、科学投资决策的石油开发形势。文中利用多元线性回归定量分析方法，综合考虑经济与技术多种因素，优选出了对油田产量影响显著的生产时间、百万吨产能投资、新建产能、生产成本和油价5个因素，并建立了相应的多元线性回归产量预测模型。在此基础上，研究了如何应用Excel办公软件实现快速回归预测和分析。通过某油田实际参数与产量关系的预测与验证，表明新建立的预测模型简单、实用、可操作性强，预测误差小于2.3%，对油田科学规划决策具有一定指导意义。

Traditional technology-centric approach of yield prediction considers the single factor and it does not directly reflect the price of crude oil, production costs and other economic factors, and development investment, capacity building and other decision factors change on crude oil production. It is difficult to adapt to the current economic efficiency, scientific oil development situation of investment decisions. In this paper, using the basic principle of multiple linear regression quantitative analysis methods and considering the economic and technical factors, the five factors such as production time, million tons production capacity investment, new production capacity, production cost and oil price are selected, and the appropriate multivariate linear regression yield prediction models are established. On this basis, it studies how to use EXCEL office software to achieve rapid regression prediction and analysis. Prediction and test on the relationship of actual parameter and production for an oilfield show that the prediction models newly established are simple, practical and easy to operate. The prediction error is less than 2.3%, which has certain guidance for oilfield scientific planning and decision-making.

10.6056/dkyqt201406017