对张金庆水驱曲线的质疑、对比与评论

Question, comparison and review on Zhang Jinqing′s water drive curve

陈元千 郝明强 邹存友 刘文梅 张枫

中国石油勘探开发研究院，北京 100083 中国石化中原油田勘探开发科学研究院，河南 濮阳 457001 中国石油东方地球物理勘探有限责任公司，河北 涿州 072751

水驱曲线法是预测水驱开发油田可采储量的重要方法之一，将其与产量递减法或预测模型法进行联解，可以预测油田不同时间的产量、累积产量和含水率。我国常用的水驱曲线法有甲、乙、丙、丁4种，这些方法均具备较为完善的理论推导，并得到了有效的实际应用。张金庆在丙型和丁型水驱曲线的基础上，提出了一种所谓的“简单、综合”的水驱特征曲线，并于1998年发表相关论文——《一个简单实用的水驱特征曲线》，同年该水驱曲线被列入国家行业标准《石油可采储量计算方法》（SY/T5367—1998），并被定名为张金庆水驱特征曲线。由于该水驱曲线未经严格的理论推导，存在若干不确定性问题，因而影响了方法的正确性和可靠性。文中对此提出了质疑，并进行了对比与评论，以期与感兴趣的读者有进一步的交流与讨论。

Abstract: Water drive curve method is an important method to predict recoverable reserves of water drive oilfields. By combining with production decline method or forecasting model method, it can predict oil production rate, cumulative production and water?鄄cut in different time. Type A, B, C and D of water drive curve methods are commonly used in China. These methods have been verified by perfect theoretical derivation and effective practical application. Based on Type C and D of water drive curves, Zhang Jinqing proposed a kind of water drive curve which wass so?鄄called simple and comprehensive. And the related paper of "A simple and practical water drive characteristic curve" was published in 1998. This method was listed in the national industry standard "Methods for calculating oil recoverable reserves (SY/T5367—1998)" in the same year, and was entitled "Zhang Jinqing water drive characteristic curve". As this water drive curve has not been derived theoretically and there are several uncertainty problems, it may affect the validity and reliability of the method. This paper put forward the question, and carried out the comparisons and review which hope having a further communication and discussion with interested readers.

10.6056/dkyqt201306013