抽油井间抽周期的灰色预测

Grey prediction of intermittent cycle for pumping well

李军亮¹ 廖锐全¹ 陈晓春²

长江大学石油工程学院，湖北 荆州 434023 中国石化胜利油田分公司新疆勘探开发中心，山东 东营 257000

School of Petroleum Engineering, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 434023, China Xinjiang Exploration and Development Center, Shengli Oilfield Company, SINOPEC, Dongying 257000, China

科学地确定间抽周期是间抽井提高生产效率的重要保证。间抽周期受地层、流体、工作制度等多种因素影响，而且各个因素之间关系复杂，因此有必要把抽油井看成一个系统。根据该系统的特点，文中首先对关井阶段和开井阶段的液面进行监测，然后采用灰色GM（1，1）模型建模，从而确定科学的间抽周期，同时，根据灰色系统理论中的“新信息优先”原理，在生产过程中，用新测试点代替旧测试点，实现了模型的实时调整以及间抽周期的实时预测，最后，以实例证明了该方法方便可行。

In order to enhance the production efficiency of the intermittent pumping well, it is important to determine the reasonable intermittent cycle. The reasonable intermittent cycle is influenced by many factors, such as the reservoir conditions, fluid properties and working system. And all factors influence each other in a complicated way. So the intermittent pumping well can be seen as a system in this paper. According to the characteristics of system, the GM(1,1) model is introduced, which is used to detect the fluid level in shut and flow period respectively. GM(1,1) model is also used to build model in order to determine the reasonable intermittent cycle. At the same time, according to the new information priority principle in the grey system theory, in the process of production, one new test point data will replace one old test point data. The model is adjusted and the intermittent cycle is predicted in real time. At last, an example shows that this method is convenient and feasible.

10.6056/dkyqt201205022