水驱油田开发指标的综合预测法

Comprehensive forecasting of development indexes in water drive oilfield

田鸿照 彭彩珍 于雪琳 刘建升

西南石油大学研究生部，四川 成都 610500 西南石油大学石油工程学院，四川 成都 610500

Graduate School of Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China Petroleum Engineering School of Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China

在油藏工程中，为了克服产量预测模型缺少含水率和水驱特征曲线缺少时间的问题，将产量预测模型公式与水驱特征曲线方程进行联解，建立含水率与开发时间的函数关系，从而预测水驱油田的产油量、产水量、产液量、含水率及相应的累计产量与可采储量。这既保持了这2种方法原有的预测功能，又克服了两者的不足。然而，目前的联解模型均是单一类型的产量预测模型与单一类型的水驱特征曲线的联解，在适用范围上有一定的局限性。将Ⅱ类广义数学模型和Z型（张金庆）广义水驱特征曲线进行联解，建立了一种预测水驱油田开发指标随油田开发时间变化的综合预测法。该方法比现有的联解法具有使用范围广，预测精度高的优点，适用于不同类型油藏的开发指标预测。

In order to solve the problems that the water cut is absent and the time curve is absent in water drive characteristics curves in production prediction model for reservoir engineering, the expression of production prediction model and the equation of water drive characteristics curve are jointly solved in order to establish the functional relation between water cut and development time, which can predict the oil production, water production rate, liquid production capacity, water cut and relevant cumulative production and recoverable reserves, and can maintain the inherent prediction function of these two methods and can overcome the defects of both. However, current joint-solution model shows the definite limitations in application range because it is a joint solution of single-type production prediction model and single-type water drive characteristics curve. Based on the joint solution of generalized mathematical model of Type Ⅱ and the generalized water drive curve of Type Z(Zhang Jinqing), a comprehensive prediction method of which the development indexes of water drive field change with the development time of oilfield is obtained. This method shows a wider application range and higher prediction precision than current joint-solution method and it is suitable for the development index prediction of different types of reservoirs.