预测油气田剩余可采储量、剩余可采程度
和剩余储采比的方法和应用

Method and application of forecasting remaining recoverable reserves, remaining
recoverable degree and remaining reserves-production ratio of oil and gas fields

陈元千 赵庆飞

中国石油勘探开发研究院，北京 100083 中国石化勘探开发研究院，北京 100083

Research Institute of PetroleumExploration and Development, CNPC, Beijing 100083, China Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, SINOPEC, Beijing 100083, China

对于已经处于开发中后期的油气田，剩余可采储量、剩余可采程度和剩余储采比是3个重要的参数。这些参数是判断和分析油气田开发形势和潜力的重要指标。基于瑞利（Rayleigh）、威布尔（Weibull）、胡-陈-张（HCZ）和哈波特（Hubbert）的不同预测模型，提出了预测剩余可采储量、剩余可采程度和剩余储采比的新方法。实例应用表明，提出的新方法是有效和实用的。

For oil and gas fields at the medium and last stages, remaining recoverable reserves, remaining recoverable degree and remaining reserves-production ratio are three important parameters. These parameters are important indexes for analyzing and judging situation and potential of oil and gas fields developments. Based on the different forecast models of Rayleigh, Weibull, HCZ (Hu-Chen-Zhang) and Hubbert, new methods for forecasting remaining recoverable reserves, remaining recoverable degree and remaining reserves-production ratio are proposed in this paper. The actual case indicates that the proposed methods are effective
and practical.