油藏产量递减指标预测新方法研究

A new method on index forcast of production decline in oil reservoirs

李源源 黄炳光 王怒涛 罗志锋 梅志宏

西南石油大学，四川 成都 610500 西南油气田分公司川东北气矿，四川 达州 635000

低渗透油藏的开发过程基本上没有上产和稳产阶段，只要油藏投入全面开发就会很快进入递减阶段。由于开发初期就进入递减阶段，没有相关的历史数据，如何对产量递减进行有效地预测，对开发决策有着极为重要的作用。由于产量递减主要是油相相对渗透率下降造成的，因此文中提出一种利用相对渗透率预测产量递减规律的新方法。该方法可以避开递减规律的识别，对油藏开发方案设计具有重要意义。

There are not the putting into production and stable production stages in the performance history of the lowpermeability oil
reservoir. So long as oil reservoir begins the comprehensive development, it may enter the depletion period very quickly. Because
the initial development enters the depletion period without historical data,how to carry on the effective forecast of production
decline is of an extremely important role to the decision-making. The drop of relative permeability of oil phase results in the
production decline. This article proposes a new method of predicting the production decline rules in the light of relative
permeability. The method has a vital significance to the design of oil reservoir development plan.