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实物期权法在石油储量价值评估中的应用

断块油气田

2007年 14卷第02期

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Title

Application of real option method in value
evaluation of petro leum reserves

作者

历成芳杨湘龙姜淑霞杨永林

Authors

Li Chengfang ,Yang Xiang long, Jiang Shuxia

单位

中原油田分公司勘探开发科学研究院, 河南濮阳457001

Organization

Sc ientific Research Institute of
Exploration and Development, Zhongyuan O ilf ie ld
Company, SINOPEC, Puyang 457001, China

摘要

用传统的净现值法评估储量价值时, 往往会低估储量的实际价值。文中将期权思想引入储量价值评估, 利用期权定价模型和实物期权理论, 结合实例研究如何利用不确定性因素获得更大收益, 从而更真实准确地反映储量的价值。

Abstract

The NPV evalua tion m ethod o ften underestim ates the
rea l values o f pe tro leum reserves. Th is article introduces the
conception o f option into the eva luating o f petro leum reserves,
utilizes the option pricemodel and the real option theo ry, pays
m ore attention to study how to take advantages o f uncertain
factors and get mo re pro fits by the ana lysis o f a rea l exam ple,
and ultim ate ly evalua tes the reserves va lue m ore accurate ly
and tru ly.

关键词：

净现值期权储量价值;

Keywords:

net present v alue, option, value eva luation;

基金项目

DOI