区带/ 圈闭的灰色综合评判技术方法研究

Comprehensive Evaluation of Grey Theory on Play and Traps

赵庆飞¹ 石晓飞² 王平美²

1. 中石化勘探开发研究院，2. 中国石油勘探开发研究院

Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development , SINOPEC, Beijing 100083 , P. R. China

在油气勘探过程中,所获取的地质资料有限,再加上地质因素的不确定性,故区带/ 圈闭地质评价是个不确定性的模型。在以往区带/ 圈闭地质评价中大量采用的地质风险概率方法,存在着许多缺点和不足。有效地对区带/ 圈闭进行定量地质评价,对于制定国家能源政策和编制油气发展规划,以及钻探目标的选择,具有非常重要的实际意义。将软计算科学引入区带/ 圈闭地质综合评价,利用灰色理论与粗糙集理论的各自学科特点,进行互补、优化综合评判方法,使得评价结果更具客观性,提高了综合评判精度。利用所提出的综合评判方法对塔里木库车前陆盆地北带的42 个圈闭进行了综合评判。实践表明,提出的综合评判方法是实用、有效的。同时,编制了相应的应用软件,使得评判工作自动化、科学化。

Geological integrated evaluation of play and traps is mainly in the station of qualitative description and half-quantification evaluation or expert experience decision. This is mainly due to its own features. During oil and gas exploration , because of limited geological data and uncertainty , play and traps’ geological integrated evaluation is a uncertain model. The geological risk probability method that was used in the past play and trap geological evaluation has many shortcomings and inadequances. How to effectively quantatively evaluate play and trap is very meaningful for laying down state energy policy , programming oil and gas development planning ,optimizing exploration objects and so on. The paper leads soft computing into play and traps’ geological integrated evaluation. By combining Grey Theory with Rough Set , making them compensating each other , optimizing each other , the result of evaluation is more objective , which makes comprehensive evaluation more precise. 42 traps in north Kuche foreland of Tarim basin were estimated in the paper by use of this method. Practice shows the method is practical and effective.At the same time ,we program the concerned applying software , which makes evaluation work automaticly and scientifically.