蒙特卡洛法在油田储量计算中的应用

Application of the Monte - Carlo Method in Reserves Calculation of Oilfield

孔祥礼,卞　炜

Kong Xiangli , Bian Wei

江苏油田地质科学研究院

Geological Science Research Institute , Jiangsu Petroleum Exploration Bureau, SINOPEC, Jiangsu 225009 , P. R. China

蒙特卡洛法又称概率统计法,该方法以随机变量为对象,以概率论为理论基础,计算得到的结果是一条储量概率分布曲线。使用时可以按照不同的需要,选择不同可靠程度的储量数值。勘探初期可选用概率低的大储量数字作为勘探的风险值;而在开发初期,可选用概率高的小储量数字。在一般储量计算方法得不到确定值的情况下,使用概率法选择一个范围值,比选用一个确定值更能反映人们对地下的认识程度,对勘探开发工作更具有指导意义。概率法被国外石油公司广泛使用,已成为资源量、储量计算的常规方法之一。

The Monte - Carlo Method is established using random variable values as target based on probability theory , so it is also called probability method. The result of reserves calculation by this method is a curve of probability distribution. Different reliable values might be selected according to different needs. At the earlier exploration , for example , the high reserves of the low probability are selected as the risk value of exploration for getting the most probable reserves. At the earlier development stage , the low reserves of high probability are selected for reducing the risk. When not calculating out definable values using common reserves calculation method , a scope of values selected using probability method might reflect better what of underground comparing to a definable value selected , so they have more guiding significance to the works of exploration and development . The probability method has been widely used by foreign oil companies and has become one of common methods about resources and reserves calculation. In China , the probability method has been widely used in the resources calculation , but it is scarely used in the reserves calculation.