基于GA-SVR算法的顺北区块固井质量预测

Predicting the cementing quality in Shunbei Block based on GA-SVR algorithm

郑双进 程霖 龙震宇 刘洋 赫英状

ZHENG Shuangjin CHENG Lin LONG Zhenyu LIU Yang HE Yingzhuang

长江大学石油工程学院 中国石油大学(北京)人工智能学院 中国石油西南油气田分公司川东北气矿 中国石化西北油田分公司工程技术研究院

College of Petroleum Engineering, Yangtze University College of Artificial Intelligence, China University of Petroleum (Beijing) Northeast Sichuan Gas Field, PetroChina Southwest Oil & Gasfield Company Engineering Technology Research Institute, SINOPEC Northwest Oilfield Company

为了准确预测西北油田顺北区块固井质量，在固井质量影响因素分析的基础上，采用机器学习方法，建立基于支持向量回归(SVR)模型的固井质量预测模型，并分别利用网格搜索法(GS)、贝叶斯优化算法(BOA)、遗传算法(GA)优选模型惩罚系数C和核函数参数g，以提高SVR预测精度。基于优化的模型结合顺北区块某井进行了实例计算，研究结果表明：相比SVR、GS-SVR、BOA-SVR算法，运用GA-SVR算法预测固井质量的均方根误差(RMSE)和平均相对误差(MRE)最低，分别为2.318和7.30%，具有较高的预测精度，可用于该区块固井质量预测。该方法为固井质量预测提供了一种有效手段，有助于固井前开展施工方案优化，提高固井质量。

In order to accurately predict the cementing quality in the Shunbei Block of Northwest Oilfield, a cementing quality prediction model based on support vector regression (SVR) model was established by means of machine learning method, based on the analysis on the influential factors of cementing quality. Then, its penalty coefficient () and kernel function parameter () were optimized by using grid search method (GS), Bayesian optimization algorithm (BOA) and genetic algorithm (GA), so as to improve SVR prediction accuracy. Finally, the optimized model was used to calculate one certain well of Shunbei Block. The results show that compared with SVR, GS-SVR and BOA-SVR algorithm, GA-SVR algorithm has the lowest the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean relative error (MRE) of predicted cementing quality, which are 2.318 and 7.30%, respectively. Obviously its prediction accuracy is higher and it can be used to predict the cementing quality in the Shunbei Block. This method provides an effective means for the prediction of cementing quality and is helpful to optimize the operation scheme before the cementing, so as to improve the cementing quality.

10.13639/j.odpt.2021.04.009