基于不确定性模型的海上钻井投资费用估算方法

An estimation method based on uncertainty model for offshore drilling investment

宋艺 刘兆年 邱浩

SONG Yi LIU Zhaonian QIU Hao

中海油研究总院有限责任公司

CNOOC Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 100028, China

海上钻井投资影响因素复杂，存在较大的不确定性。现有的估算方法都为确定性方法，一般只能反映出以往作业的平均水平，不能有效反映投资的风险和潜力，钻井投资估算必然会产生一定的误差，影响石油公司的投资决策。针对上述问题，首先对影响钻井投资最重要的因素——钻井工期工序进行细化分析，并进行了科学分类，通过蒙特卡洛方法对钻井工序进行概率分布拟合，得到钻井工期估算决策模型，最后通过作业日费和材料费等投资估算方法，得到钻井投资估算的概率决策模型，有效反映出钻井投资的风险和潜力，为石油勘探开发提供更科学的投资依据，降低钻完井投资的风险。

Offshore drilling investment is affected by complicated factors, and its uncertainty is greater. Existing estimation methods are all deterministic methods, which can only reflect the average level of previous operations, but cannot reflect the risk and potential of the investment effectively. Therefore, the drilling investment estimated by these deterministic methods will inevitably generate a certain error and impact the investment decisions of petroleum companies. In this paper, the most important factor influencing the drilling investment, i.e., the drilling period and procedure was finely analyzed and classified scientifically. After probability distribution fitting was conducted on the drilling procedure by means of Monte Carlo method, the decision-making model for drilling period estimation was established. Finally, the probability decision-making model for drilling investment estimation was developed by means of investment estimation methods, e.g. daily operation cost and material expense. And it can reflect the risk and potential of drilling investment effectively. The research results provide the scientific investment basis for oil exploration and development and play an important role in reducing the risk of drilling and completion investment.

10.13639/j.odpt.2018.06.013