压裂作业效果多元线性回归模型及措施技术经济界限

Multivariate linear regression model for evaluating fracturing effects and technical and economic limits of fracturing stimulation

梁甲波 卢岩 姚佳杉

LIANG Jiabo LU Yan YAO Jiashan

中国海洋石油伊拉克有限公司油井作业中心 中国海洋油服中东公司 中石油华北油田公司第一采油厂

Oil Well Operation Center, CNOOC Iraq Co., Ltd., Dubai 54799, United Arab Emirates Middle-East Company, China Oilfield Services Limited, Dubai 54799, United Arab Emirates No.1 Oil Production Plant, PetroChina Huabei Oilfield Company, Renqiu, Hebei 062552, China

加砂压裂是低孔、低渗砂岩储层改造的主要措施之一。而准确地评价压裂增油效果是结合经济效益确定措施界限的基础。基于国内某油田已进行压裂施工井的实际增油效果数据，应用多元线性回归分析法建立了从基础井网到三次井网的压裂措施增油模型。应用此模型进行增油幅度预测，计算出二次井网平均增油幅度为1.93，与实际结果1.95相比误差仅为1.03%，符合性较好。应用此模型根据各影响因素的权重值，找出了各井网影响压裂效果的2项主控因素，结合不同油价确定了下一步措施各井网主控因素的技术经济界限。该方法所建立的增油模型从油田实际生产数据出发，适用性较强，整套模型建立方法可推广至其他区块。

Sand fracturing is one of important stimulation measures for low porosity and low permeability sandstone reservoirs. And the accurate evaluation on fracturing stimulation effect, combined with the economic benefit is the base to determine the limit of stimulation measures. The fracturing oil enhancement model from the basic well pattern to the tertiary well pattern was established by means of multivariate linear regression analysis method based on the actual oil increment data of fracturing wells in a certain domestic oilfield. This model was applied to predict the oil increment amplitude. The calculated average oil increment amplitude of secondary well pattern is 1.93, which is 1.03% lower than the actual value (1.95), indicating good conformity. Based on the weighing values of all influential factors, two main control factors affecting the fracturing effects of different well patterns were identified by using this model. And combined with the oil prices, the technical and economic limits of main control factors of the following stimulation measures in each well pattern were determined. The oil enhancement model established by this method takes the actual production data of an oilfield as the beginning point and its applicability is stronger. The whole set of modeling method developed in this paper can be popularized to other blocks.

10.13639/j.odpt.2018.04.019