井壁坍塌风险的模糊综合评价方法

Application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on borehole collapse risk

刘建华 吴超 张成 张东清 唐志

LIU Jianhua WU Chao ZHANG Cheng ZHANG Dongqing TANG Zhi

中国石油化工股份有限公司石油工程技术研究院，北京　100101 中国石油化工股份有限公司勘探南方分公司，四川成都　610041

SINOPEC Research Institute of Petroleum Engineering, Beijing 100101, China SINOPEC Exploration Southern Company, Chengdu 610041, China

针对钻井过程中井壁具有较强的不确定性与模糊性，在充分分析钻井工程中各类井壁坍塌影响因素的基础上，将层次分析与模糊评判方法综合运用到井壁坍塌风险评估中，使用层次分析法确定各类影响因素的权重系数，运用模糊评判法建立了井壁坍塌风险预测模型，形成了一套井壁坍塌风险评估的定量分析方法，对钻井过程中可能面临的井壁坍塌风险进行了评估和预测，提供了有效的风险控制。对川东北元坝22井的重点层段进行了井壁坍塌风险评估，应用结果表明，利用模糊综合评价法进行井壁坍塌风险评估有效可行。

According to the high uncertainty and vagueness of wellbore stability issue during drilling, the methods of analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are applied to borehole collapse risk prediction, based on the sufficient analysis on all the factors affecting borehole stability. The analytical hierarchy process method is used to determine the weight coefficients of each factor, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is taken to establish risk prediction model for borehole collapse. A set of quantitative analyse method is formed to assess the borehole collapse risk, which supplies effective risk control for the potential borehole collapse risk. The model is used in Well YB-22 and the results show that the method is feasible to forecast well collapse risk.