川东北钻井复杂情况风险分析方法研究

Risk analysis method for drilling trouble in Northeast Sichuan

王萍 李文飞 张锐 王光磊 张运成

WANG Ping LI Wenfei ZHANG Rui WANG Guanglei ZHANG Yuncheng

胜利石油管理局钻井工艺研究院，山东东营　257017 中国石油大学，山东东营　257061 胜利石油管理局海洋钻井公司，山东东营　257000

Drilling Technology Research Institute, Shengli Petroleum Administration, Dongying 257017, China College of Petroleum Engineering in China University of Petroleum, Dongying 257061, China Shengli Offshore Drilling Company, Dongying 257000, China

川东北地区地质构造非常复杂，钻井地质环境难以预测，给钻井设计与施工带来很大的不确定性和风险性。在资料统计分析的基础上，采用统计学习法，建立了钻井复杂情况分析模型，对川东北地区钻井风险进行了分析研究，结果表明，井漏模型准确率90.5238%、溢流模型准确率99.9855%、井塌模型准确率99.802%、卡钻模型准确率83.33%、钻具失效模型准确率90%，分析结果表明提出的钻井复杂情况风险分析法准确可靠，能够满足现场施工安全要求，具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。

Northeast Sichuan is a representative gas field with high pressure, high production, and high hydrogen sulfide in China, and the complex geological structure and unpredictive drilling geologic environment bring uncertainty and risk for drilling design and operation. Based on the analysis of drilling trouble statistics, according to statistical decision method, the analysis model for drilling risk is established, and the drilling risk in Northeast Sichuan is analyzed. The results show that the accuracy of circulation loss model is 90.5238%; that of overflow model is 99.9855%; that of borehole collapse model is 99.802%; that of bit freezing model is 83.33%; and that of drill string failure model is 90%. Therefore, the analysis method for drilling risk is reliable, and meets with safety requirement of the drilling site, and it is significant theoretically and practically.