井下风险管理系统设计及应用

Design and application of downhole risk management system

连志龙 赵庆 霍宗强 李黔

LIAN Zhilong ZHAO Qing HUO Zongqiang LI Qian

中国石油集团钻井工程技术研究院钻井工艺研究所，北京　100195 西南石油大学石油工程学院，四川成都　610500

Department of Drilling Technology, CNPC Drilling Research Institute, Beijing 100195, China School of Petroleum Engineering, South West Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China

井下风险管理系统可以用于预防和减少井下事故与复杂发生，提高钻井综合效益。以井下风险管理系统为研究对象，设计了井下风险管理系统体系结构及其工艺过程，探讨了井下风险多源信息融合技术、风险预测技术、风险识别技术和风险评价技术以及钻井作业参数智能优化技术等几项关键技术，并举例说明了BP神经网络法预测井漏风险的结果。研究认为：井下风险管理技术研究应在保障钻井安全的前提下追求成本最小化，以安全工程的基本原则作为指导思想，以信息技术作为基本手段，以跨学科技术融合作为研究重点。该研究成果可为井下风险管理系统开发及其相关技术研究提供参考。

Downhole risk management system can be used to prevent and decrease occurrence of drilling accident and complexity, and to improve drilling efficiency. Downhole risk management system was chosen as the study object and the architecture and process of downhole risk management system were designed. Several key techniques were preliminarily discussed, including downhole risk multi-source information fusion technique, risk prediction technique, risk identification technique, risk assessment technique and drilling operation parameters intelligent optimization technique, and the results of using BP nerve network predicting mud loss were illustrated. The goal of the downhole risk management technology study is to pursue cost minimization under the precondition of ensuring drilling safety, taking the basic principle of safety engineering as the guiding ideology, information technology as the basic means, and the interdisciplinary technology fusion as the research emphasis. The obtained conclusions are of much significance for the development of downhole risk management system and its related technologies study.