胡尖山油田水力压裂效果灰色关联评价模型

Study on prediction model of fracturing result in Hujianshan Oilfield

蒲春生 裴润有 吴飞鹏 高永亮 居迎军

PU Chunsheng PEI Runyou WU Feipeng GAO Yongliang JU Yingjun

中国石油大学石油工程学院，北京　102249 西安石油大学石油工程学院，陕西西安　710065 中国石油大学石油工程学院，山东东营　257061 长庆油田公司，陕西西安　710026

Petroleum Engineering Institute, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, Cina Petroleum Engineering Institute, Xi’an Shiyou University, Xi’an 710065, China Petroleum Engineering Institute, China University of Petroleum East China, Dongying 257061, China Changqing Oilfield Company

针对鄂尔多斯盆地胡尖山油田油层复杂、水力压裂措施效果不理想的问题，在统计分析胡尖山油田117井次水力压裂历史数据的基础上，利用灰色关联分析方法研究了各因素对措施效果的影响权重，并运用多元二次非线性回归方法建立了胡尖山油田水力压裂措施效果预测模型。经实际应用得出该模型对建模所用样本点的符合率为90.8%，对储层类型的新压裂井的措施效果预测符合率为84.8%，具有较强的针对性和精确性，可为该油区水力压裂优化设计提供指导。

According to the problems in Hujianshan Oilfield that the formations are complex and the hydraulic fracturing results are not ideal, based on the statistical analysis of historical data of hydraulic fracturing of 117 wells, making use of gray correlation analysis, the influence weights of all factors for treatment results are obtained; and applying the method of multivariate quadratic nonlinear regression equation, the prediction model of hydraulic fracturing results is established. By practical application of this model, it is concluded that the coincidence rate is 90.8% for sample points; the prediction coincidence rate is 84.8% for newly fractured wells. The result shows that this model has strong pertinence and precision, being able to provide guidance for hydraulic fracturing optimization .