基于统计学原理的钻井地质预测符合度评价研究

Research on statistics-based evaluation of drilling geological forcasting conformity

李琪 林勇 张玉宁 刘志坤 高晓荣

LI Qi LIN Yong ZHANG Yuning LIU Zhikun GAO Xiaorong

西安石油大学石油工程学院，陕西西安　710065 吐哈油田开发处，新疆哈密　839009

钻井过程中实钻地层情况往往与设计的地层描述存在较大偏差，二者的偏差又会引发各种钻井复杂与事故。基于统计学原理，通过挖掘油田勘探开发的历史数据，设计了一套钻井地质预测符合度评价方法，并在调研塔里木库车坳陷5 个二级构造重点井设计与实钻资料的基础上，以库车坳陷为研究对象，对所提方法进行了实例评价研究，文中以计算机伪代码的形式给出了基本算法，并介绍了基于.NET 平台编制的钻井地质预测符合度评价软件。结果表明，该评价方法有助于钻井地质设计人员从宏观上把握对地层层位、目的层层位及特殊岩性的预测与实钻的符合程度，且该方法对新井的钻井地质设计与施工也具有重要的指导意义。

The deviation, which triggers off different drilling complications and troubles, usually occurs between practical drilling formation situation and designed stratigraphic description in drilling process. According to the statistics principle, a set of evaluation methods are designed for drilling geological forcasting conformity through collecting the historical information of oilield exploration and development in this paper. Based on researching the design and drilling information of ive key wells in the secondary structure of Kuqa sag, taking the Kuqa sag as the research object, example evaluation research is conducted on the methods mentioned above. The basic algorithm is presented in pseudo code form. Also the drilling geological forecasting conformity evaluation software based on .NET platform is introduced. The result shows that the evaluation methods can help drilling geology designers grasp the conformity of strati- graphic horizon, target layer horizon and special lithology between real drilling and forecasting. And they also have important directive signiicance to drilling geological design and construction of new wells.