压后综合评估的模糊方法研究

Study on the fuzzy method for fracturing comprehensive evaluation

张鹏飞 郭大立 王东浩 计勇 许江文 胡广军

ZHANG Pengfei GUO Dali WANG Donghao JI Yong XU Jiangwen HU Guangjun

西南石油大学研究生院，四川成都　610500 新疆油田公司勘探公司，新疆克拉玛依　834000

Graduate School of Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China Exploration Company of Xinjiang Oilfield Company, Kelamayi 834000, China

随着水力压裂技术的发展和应用，现场迫切需要??济而准确地评估地下水力裂缝的方法。目前压裂评估技术较多，但各种评估技术既有可信的一面，也有不准确的一面，评估结果可能有确定信息，也可能有模糊信息，还可能有灰信息。针对各种技术评估结果的不一致性与模糊性以及技术本身的不成熟性，首次研究探索压裂综合评估问题，通过引入模糊数学理论，提出了综合评估有关压裂参数（如裂缝长度、裂缝高度、裂缝宽度、裂缝导流能力、裂缝闭合压力和压裂液综合滤失系数等）的模糊线性回归模型及其求解方法，可综合各种确定性、不确定性、模糊性、灰性的信息，获得客观科学的综合评估结果。最后，通过实例分析和应用，说明了模型和方法的有效性和实用性。

With the development and application of hydraulic fracturing technology, a method to evaluate the underground hydraulic fracture economically and properly is an urgent need for the field. There are many fracturing evaluation technologies so far, which are believable to a certain degree but not accurate on the other side. Therefore evaluation results may contain ascertained information, fuzzy information and grey information. For the inconsistency and fuzziness of various evaluation results and the immaturity of the technology itself, in this paper we study the comprehensive evaluation problem of fracturing for the first time. We put forward a fuzzy linear regression model and its solution by the introduction of fuzzy mathematics theory. The model can comprehensively evaluate the associated fracturing parameters such as the fracture length, fracture height, fracture width, fracture conductivity, fracture closure pressure and fracturing fluid leak-off coefficient and so on. By the integration of various information of certain, uncertain, fuzzy and grey, an objective and scientific comprehensive evaluation result can be obtained. Finally, it is proved that the model and method is practical and effective through actual application.