中国钻井技术经济指标的发展规律研究

RESEARCH ON THE DEVELOPING TENDENCY OF TECHNICAL ECONOMICAL INDEXES IN THE FIELD OF DRILLING IN CHINA

王同良 徐波

Wang Tongliang Xu Bo

石油经济和信息研究中心, 北京 100011 西安石油学院, 陕西西安 710065

中国的石油钻井科技有了很大的发展,文中根据历年来大量的统计数据,将钻井技术指标、产储量等参数随时间的变化趋势,用回归分析等数理统计方法和先进的统计分析软件及图形软件定量地分析了钻井技术发展的规律,并建立了 5个动用钻机数的预测模型,分别是:1.由油气产储量来计划预测井数,再根据井数来预测动用钻机数;2.根椐油气产储量计划预测进尺工作量,再根据进尺来预测动用钻机数;3.直接根据油气产量预测动用钻机数;4.根据时间预测动用钻机数;5.根据原油价格预测动用钻机数。并指出真正的动用钻机时除根椐以上 5个预测模型外,还要根椐实际情况进行综合判断,再确定动用钻机数,为生产决策提供较为可靠的科学依椐。

Great improvements have been achieved in drilling science and technology in China, yet quantitative studies and descriptions are seldom conducted on its developing tendency. Based on the changing tendency of such parameters as economic indexes, production and reserves versus time, this paper analyzes the developing tendency of drilling technology quantitatively, involved using of large amount of statistics and such method as regression analysis and statistical software. Five models for predicting the amount of drilling rigs in use are established accordingly, and these models are mainly based on 1.oil and gas production and reserves; 2.predicted drilling footage based on production and reserves plan; 3.oil and gas production; 4.time; 5.oil price. It points out that other than these five models, the specific conditions should be taken into consideration, to decide the exact amount of drilling rigs needed to be put into use.

10.3969/j.issn.1000-7393.2001.01.001