应用翁氏族回理论预测中国天然气探明储量的增长趋势

PREDICTING THE INCREASE OF CHINA'S PROVED GAS RESERVES BY USING "WENG'S CYCLE

任宏斌 孔志平 李东旭

Ren Hongbin Kong Zhiping Li Dongxu

翁氏生命旋回适用于对生命总量有限体系的描述和预测,其曲线形式与我国天然气累计探明储量的增长曲线一致。石油与天然气为非再生性矿产资源,能够用“翁氏族回”模型描述和预测,预测结果表明我国天然气储量增长高峰期在2011～2024年,最终可探明天然气总资源量为11.5×10～23.0×10m.

Weng's Life Cycle" is suitable for the description and prediction of the finite system of life amount, and its curve coincides to the increase curve of China's proved natural gas reserves."Weng's Cycle"could be used to describe and predict oil and gas reserves.As oil and gas are non-regenerated resources, the results indicates that the peak period of gas reserve increase will be 2011～2024 , and the fina amount of proved gas resources will be 11.5 ×10～23.0 × 10m.

10.11743/ogg19960308