渤海海域渤中凹陷源控油气作用及有利勘探区域预测

Control of source rock on hydrocarbon accumulation and prediction of favorable plays in the Bozhong Depression of the Bohai Sea waters

夏庆龙 庞雄奇 姜福杰 马行陟

Xia Qinglong Pang Xiongqi Jiang Fujie Ma Xingzhi

根据"源控论"的地质思想,通过对中国东部盆地烃源岩与油气藏分布特征的地质统计,提出了油气分布门限的概念,并在此基础上提出了油气成藏概率、储量分布概率和最大油藏规模的相关概念,采用地质统计、回归判别的方法,建立了多元非线性数学模型.结合排烃门限、成藏门限和分布门限对渤海海域渤中凹陷的油气分布进行了综合预测,结果表明,石臼坨成藏体系和渤东成藏体系是最有利的勘探区带,在排烃边界范围附近、成藏概率大于80%的圈闭将是最有利的勘探目标.

According to the geological theory of "source-control" (i.e.,hydrocarbon accumulations are under the control of source rocks),we made geostatistics on distributions of source rocks and reservoirs in China's eastern basins.Based on these statistical data,we brought forward a concept of "hydrocarbon distribution threshold" ,which lays the foundation for concepts such as "probability of hydrocarbon pooling","probability of reserve distribution" and "maximum size of reservoir".A multivariate nonlinear mathematical model was established by using the geostatistics and regression discrimination approaches.We made a comprehensive prediction on the hydrocarbon distribution in the Bozhong depression of the Bohai Sea waters according to the hydrocarbon expulsion threshold,hydrocarbon pooling threshold and hydrocarbon distribution threshold.The results show that,the favorable plays are the Shijiutuo pooling system and the Bodong pooling system.Favorable exploration targets will be traps which are adjacent to the boundary of hydrocarbon expulsion and have an over 80% probability of hydrocarbon pooling.

10.11743/ogg20090402