油气田产量预测模型应用新方法

New application of the forecast model of oil/gas output

刘传喜 王树平 刘延庆

Liu Chuanxi Wang Shuping Liu Yanqing

预测油气田产量的模型较多,其中应用较广的有HCZ,Logistic,Weibull等模型,它们得以应用的基本条件是油气田开发进入中、后期,产量进入递减阶段。在油气田开发初期,生产数据较少,这些产量预测模型的应用都存在一定的不适应性。对预测模型参数计算方法进行了改进,利用油气田开发初期少量数据即可获得模型参数,使产量预测模型的应用范围拓展到了油气田开发初期。同时,提出了模型优选方法,为不同油气田选择合理的产量预测模型提供了依据。

Weibull,HCZ and Logistic models are widely used to forecast output of oil/gas fields.They are only suitable for oil/gas fields in middle or late stage of development and in declining.However,they are not applicable to fields in early development stage due to the shortage of production data.In this paper,the calculation methods of parameters are improved for obtaining the parameters of these models with the limited data in the early stage of development.In this way the range of application of these production forecast models can be extended for use in the early stage of development.In addition,methods of model optimization are also presented to provide a basis for choosing the proper model for production forecast of different oil/gas fields.

10.11743/ogg20090320