基于模糊故障树的输油管道压力异常波动分析

Abnormal Fluctuations Analysis for Pipe Network System Based on the Fuzzy Fault Tree

王国涛 姬中元 李传宪 陈 赫 杨 飞

Wang Guotao Ji Zhongyuan Li Chuanxian Chen He Yang Fei

关键词: 复杂输油管道, 压力波动, 故障树, 模糊数学, 决策树

Given the frequent accidents attributed to abnormal pressure fluctuation and the less effectiveness of preventive measures of complex pipe network, the FTA method of graph theory was applied to solve this problem. Induced mechanism of abnormal pressure fluctuations was interpreted and the FTA model of pressure abnormal fluctuations in complex pipeline network was firstly proposed and established in this paper. An imported crude oil pipe network was taken as a case study by using the Delphi method and fuzzy mathematics theory to solve the model. Results agree well with the actual statistics. Then K-means clustering method was carried on to analyze the three importance of typical basic events and the three-tier structure of the abnormal fluctuations is proposed using the DTA method, which lies a theoretical basis for the analysis on abnormal events as well as the optimization of the prevention and control measures. This paper mainly offers a new research idea in the field of operation security and integrity management of the large, complex pipe network especially when the historical data is far from complete.

国家自然科学基金(51204202);山东省自然科学基金(ZR2012EEQ002);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(14CX02210A,15CX06072A)。