论文详情
当前我国正处在快速工业化、经济腾飞,并步入一个世界科技大国向世界科技强国迈进的前夜,需要大量的资源和能源乃必然的发展轨迹。然而,我国地大但物并不博。为此,在我国快速发展中、在多元共享世界能源的同时,必须立足本土,建立起可靠的、稳定的且能保障长期供给的能源战略后备基地已刻不容缓。研究与分析当今世界和我国油、气、煤等化石能源发展的历程,结果表明:①第二深度空间(5000～10000m)化石能源勘探和开发乃21世纪中叶前后的重要领域,此类能源是一次性能源消费的主体;②非常规油气、特别是页岩油气藏在最大限度地减少污染、强化高新科技应用于降低成本前提下,大力勘探、开发、利用乃未来化石能源发展的必然轨迹;③煤炭、煤层气与煤能转化,制油、煤制气,地下燃烧发电和煤化工产业的研发在能源结构中的主导地位不会改变。基于上述认识,在21世纪中叶前后乃至更长时期内,我国的能源匹配模式应为“第二深度常规油气”+“煤层气与煤能转换”+“非常规页岩气”。
China is experiencing rapid industrialization and economic growth.However,becoming a world-leading scientific and technological power takes a heavy toll in terms of energy consumption.Although China covers a vast territory,resources are not abundant.Therefore,establishing a reliable,stable,and strategic reserve is an urgent task to guarantee long-term supplies and lead the global development.By analyzing the current processes for the exploitation of fossil fuels in China and abroad,the following conclusions were drawn:①the exploration and development of fossil fuels in the so-called second deep space (5000~10000m) will become strategic by the middle of this century and will supply a bulk of the disposable energy;②in the process of minimizing pollution and costs through advanced technologies,the development of unconventional oil and gas resources,specifically shale oil and gas reservoirs,will be inevitable;③the current balance of energy sources,dominated by coal,coalbed gas,oil,and power generation by underground combustion,is not expected to change and,the development of the coal chemical industry will remain strategic.Based on the above points,it is expected that Chinas energy supply in the mid-21st century (and possibly beyond) will come from a combination of conventional oil and gas from the second deep space,coalbed gas,and unconventional shale gas.
国家自然科学基金项目(41674102,41774090)资助。