多因素敏感性分析在低勘探程度区块价值评估中的应用与探讨

Application and discussion of multi-factor sensitivity analysis in value assessment of areas with low exploration level

封永泰 赵琳洁 王保华 李龙龙 段铁军

FENG Yongtai ZHAO Linjie WANG Baohua LI Longlong DUAN Tiejun

1. 中国石化 油田勘探开发事业部, 北京 100728; 2. 中国石化 石油勘探开发研究院 无锡石油地质研究所, 江苏 无锡 214126

1. Oilfield Exploration and Development Division, SINOPEC, Beijing 100728, China; 2. Wuxi Research Institute of Petroleum Geology, SINOPEC, Wuxi, Jiangsu 214126, China

随着矿业权竞争性政策在全国范围内的落地实施，油气勘查开采市场全面放开，但出让区块大多位于低勘探程度区。低勘探程度区存在资料缺乏、认识薄弱等现实因素，增大了各大油公司在“扩矿权”进程中所面临的区块评价、优选及竞标获取难度。在此背景下，对于各大油公司而言，如何在勘探认知有限的情况下，快速且有效地评估低勘探程度区块的价值，对各油公司在区块获取中掌握主动权显得尤为重要。考虑油气勘探中地质的复杂性、勘探的局限性、开发的不确定性以及经济环境的波动性等风险因素，以国际通行的预期货币价值法为基础，借助多参数敏感性分析手段，明确影响区块价值评估的关键敏感因素，建立单位地质资源量预期收益与主控因素之间的多元回归方程，实现对低勘探程度区块价值的有效评估，并在塔里木盆地北部某常规断溶体油藏区块开展应用。该方法充分考虑油气勘探中的地质、勘探、开发、经济等风险因素，通过多参数敏感性分析，定量确定主控因素，并建立类比模型，为类比法参数体系确定提供科学依据，进而客观、快速地评估低勘探程度区的预期收益，也为出让区块的竞标决策提供有力的支持。

With the full implementation of competitive mining rights policies in China, the oil and gas exploration and production market has been fully open, but most of the exploration blocks currently being offered are located in areas with low exploration level. Due to the lack of data and limited understanding in these areas, major oil companies face challenges in evaluating, selecting, and bidding during the process of obtaining mining rights. Against this background, it is particularly crucial for those companies to quickly and effectively assess the value of areas with low exploration level to gain a strategic advantage in block acquisition. This study takes into account the risks in oil and gas exploration, including geological complexity, exploration limitations, development uncertainties, and economic fluctuations. Based on the internationally recognized expected monetary value (EMV) method, the study employed multi-factor sensitivity analysis to identify the key sensitive factors affecting block value assessment. A multiple regression equation was established between the expected revenue per unit of geological resources and the main controlling factors, thereby enabling an effective assessment of the value of areas with low exploration level. The method has been applied to a conventional karstic-fault oil reservoir block in the northern Tarim Basin. This method comprehensively considers geological, exploration, development, and economic risks in oil and gas exploration. Through quantitative multi-factor sensitivity analysis, it determines the key controlling factors and establishes an analogy model. It provides a scientific basis for defining the parameter systems in analogy methods, enabling objective and rapid assessment of expected revenue in areas with low exploration level. It offers strong support for bidding decisions on blocks on offer.

中国石化科技部项目“油气勘查区块分类分级评价与矿权策略研究”(P24235)和中国石化“十四五”资源评价方法与数据库建设(P23229)联合资助。

https://doi.org/10.11781/sysydz2025020426