基于Kent评分法的新奥LNG外输海底管道舟山段风险评价研究

Risk Evaluation Study of Zhoushan Section of Xin'ao LNG Export Submarine Pipeline Based on Kent Method

程龙生 尤德财 王丹 谢飞

Longsheng CHENG Decai YOU Dan WANG Fei XIE

新奥新能（浙江）能源贸易有限公司，浙江 杭州 310014 辽宁石油化工大学 石油天然气工程学院，辽宁 抚顺 113001

ENN New Energy （Zhejiang） Energy Trading Co. ，Ltd. ，Hangzhou Zhejiang 310014，China College of Petroleum Engineering，Liaoning Petrochemical University，Fushun Liaoning 113001，China

风险评价是管道完整性管理的核心工作，也是实现风险预防管理的前提和基础。海底管道的服役条件苛刻，监测和维修难度大，事故后果严重。为了保障海底管道的安全运行，结合新奥LNG外输海底管道舟山段服役条件和运行特点，对其危险因素进行识别，并采用Kent评分法对其进行风险评价，得到了该LNG外输海底管道的相对风险值；根据相对风险值，对该LNG外输海底管道系统的风险管段进行了等级评定。结果表明，海底管道舟山段的相对风险值主要介于100~200，风险等级处于较低水平。同时，提出了针对海底管道舟山段的风险管理措施和建议。本研究可为建立基于风险级别的管理机制及保障海底管道的安全运行提供科学指导和参考依据。

Risk evaluation is the core work of pipeline integrity management and the prerequisite and foundation for realizing risk prevention management. Zhoushan submarine pipeline has harsh service conditions, difficult monitoring and maintenance, and serious consequences of accidents. In order to ensure the safe operation of the submarine pipeline. Integrating the service conditions and operational characteristics of the Zhoushan section of the Xinao LNG submarine pipeline, this study first identifies risk factors through systematic hazard analysis. Subsequently, the modified Kent methodology is applied to quantify relative risk values. According to the size of the relative risk value, the risky pipeline sections of this LNG pipeline system were graded. The results show that the relative risk value of the Zhoushan section of the submarine pipeline is predominantly within the 100~200 range, and the risk rating is at a low level. Meanwhile, risk management measures and recommendations for Zhoushan submarine pipeline are proposed. These strategies are aimed at promoting the realization of a risk?level?based management mechanism, thus providing scientific guidance and reference bases for the safe operation of submarine pipelines.

国家自然科学基金项目(52402428)

10.12422/j.issn.1672-6952.2025.03.007